Climatic determinants of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Uganda: 2020-2022

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change has been shown to influence viral disease transmission. The strange fluctuations in cases and deaths due to COVID-19 could be due to the dynamics in weather patterns. This study aimed to explore the relationship and influence of meteorological parameters on COVID-19 cases and deaths. Methods: I designed a longitudinal retrospective study to explore the influence of temperature, rainfall, wind speed and humidity on COVID-19 cases and deaths from March 2020 to January 2022. Datasets of both predictor (Meteorological weather parameters) and outcome (COVID-19 cases and deaths) variables were obtained from the records of the National Meteorological Authority and Ministry of Health websites respectively. A choropleth map was drawn in QGIS 3.2 showing the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 cases/100,000. The trends of COVID-19 cases and deaths were determined by plotting line graphs for the mean monthly observed variable concerning with the different years. The non-parametric tests (Spearman’s correlations) were used to investigate the association between the outcome and variables. A generalized linear regression model (bivariate and multivariate) was conducted to explore the climatic determinants of COVID-19 cases and deaths using the different predictor variables. Multicollinearity was assessed in the modelling process Results: The unit increase in the daily maximum temperature for the COVID-19 cases decreased by 43.31 times [43.31; 95% CI = -71.87-(-14.76); p-value 0.003] whereas COVID-19 deaths decreased by 4.47 times [4.47; 95% CI = -7.25-(-1.70); p-value 0.002]. Conclusion: Districts of Amuru, Gulu, Moroto, Mbarara and Kampala presented with the highest number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000. More number of COVID-19 cases and deaths were observed in the periods of April to August. Temperature and relative humidity were both negatively related to the daily COVID-19 cases and Deaths. More surveillance needs to be conducted during the period from April to August as the period exhibited with high number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.