Modelling habitat suitability of bee species under changing climate and land use land cover

Abstract

Honeybees and Stingless bees are essential in pollinating agricultural and wild plants. Changes in climate and LULC are expected to impact the habitat suitability for these bee species. However, existing studies do not consider LULC variables when modelling the future habitat suitability of bee species. Therefore, this study included predicted LULC for 2050 in assessing future habitat suitability. The aim of the study was to model the impact of changes in climate and land use land cover on habitat suitability for Apis mellifera and Meliponula ferruginea. Maxent algorithm for habitat suitability modelling was used to estimate the habitat suitability for the selected bee species in 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2050. The datasets for determining habitat suitability included species occurrence data, LULC and climate variables. Models were built using two combinations. The first model was built using only climate variables, and the second combination was based on climate and LULC variables. The results of habitat suitability change showed a decrease of about 41% in high habitat suitability Apis mellifera observed between 2000 and 2010. While for Meliponula ferruginea, the most significant decrease of 38% in high habitat suitability occurred between 1990 and 2000. The change in future LULC had a negative impact on the future high habitat suitability for Meliponula ferruginea in the two climate change scenarios. For Apis mellifera, the future habitat suitability was predicted to increase regardless of the climate change scenario. However, the increase was more for the future climate change scenario with moderate challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation (SSP 245). Therefore, results from this study provide a framework for conservation strategies for both honeybees and stingless bees, considering the distribution of habitat suitability varies under the different climate change scenarios.